GoreWatch: Full Analysis of Al's Calendar!

[This is my contribution to Blog About Gore Day.]

When I started Gore Watch, I wasn't quite sure what I was trying to achieve. I'd hear a story about a Gore event here or that Gore cancelled some international event there. And it got me to wondering what Al's schedule looked like. He couldn't run for President if he was traveling all over the world.

Moreover, I was hoping to get a clear picture of what Al Gore's plans were. Maybe I could decipher his intentions from the dates. All I could come up with was:

He'll announce after the Nobel Peace Prize. His schedule is (mostly) clear after the announcement on Oct 12. But you can't make any kind of solid argument about that. Maybe he doesn't announce events this far in advance.

While there may not be one clear story coming out of the calendar, there ARE a short number of possibilities... below the fold.

First off, let me give you a brief overview of what we know so far (and thanks again to all of you who provided info, links, corrections):

• Al Gore will make a few international dates in mid-September.
• In late-Sept, early-Oct, Al Gore begins a tour of the west, starting in British Columbia. This tour includes increasingly blue states such as Colorado and New Mexico.
• Al Gore has one scheduled domestic event after the Nobel Peace Prize announcement of Oct 12.

Here is the fully detailed GoreWatch calendar with sources. As always, if you have something to add/change, let me know in the comments.

September 19 – Scheduled event (Sydney, Australia)

"THOSE leading environmentalists John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull apparently both turned down invitations to a lunch with An Inconvenient Truth Oscar winner Al Gore in Sydney on Friday week because they had previous engagements. Now Gore's timetable has changed and his Sydney appearance has been rescheduled for September 19. Both the PM and Turnbull have had invitations reissued and the Japanese automobile maker sponsoring Gore's trip has even offered to send chauffeured cars to pick them up, but, as yet, the lunch organisers have not had a reply from either man."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...

Sydney - Wednesday 19th September 2007, 12noon till 2.30pm, Darling Harbour"

http://www.acnnewswire.net/...

September 21 – Scheduled event (Melbourne, Australia)

"Melbourne - Friday 21st September 2007, 12noon till 2.30pm, Sofitel Melbourne
The Melbourne event on Friday 21st September goes ahead as planned."

http://www.acnnewswire.net/...

September 29 – Scheduled event (Vancouver, BC)

Speaking arrangement at the Westin Bayshore.

http://algorevancouver.com/...

September 29 – Scheduled event (Victoria, BC)

Speaking arrangement at the Victoria Conference Centre.

"The tour did not include Victoria initially, though Gore is scheduled to appear in Vancouver Sept. 29. He will now do the Victoria stop earlier in the day before heading across the water for his evening engagement.
Jacobson managed to land Gore after he hit the Internet and tracked down Gore's agent to feel him out about a possible Victoria visit."

http://www.canada.com/...

September - Declined event (Colombia)
"Officials in Bogota said Gore also called off a planned September visit to Colombia, Washington's closest ally in Latin America."

http://findarticles.com/...

September - Cancelled event (Taiwan)
"Former US vice president Al Gore will not be able to make it to Taiwan this September to address the issue of global warming, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Tien Chiu-chin (田秋堇) said yesterday. Tien, who invited Gore to visit Taiwan to promote awareness on global warming, told reporters yesterday that she received an e-mail from the Harry Walker Agency, which has the exclusive right to arrange Gore's speeches, saying that Gore had canceled all his scheduled events in the next six months. The visit to Taiwan had been postponed to next year, she added. Tien said the reason for the cancelation was that Gore was considering a presidential bid." Take this with a big fat grain of salt. Gore's schedule was obviously not cleared for six months.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/...

October 1 – Scheduled event (Austin, TX)
Speaking arrangement at the Theatre at the Frank Erwin Center at the University of Texas.

http://www.statesman.com/...

October 2 – Scheduled event (Denver, CO)
Speaking arrangement at Wells Fargo Theater.

http://www.vividseats.com/...

October 3 – Scheduled event (Rio Rancho, NM)
Speaking arrangement at Santa Ana Star Center.

http://www.gettix.net/...

October 6 – Declined event (India)
“The chieftains have invited Gore to their remote village for the award ceremony on Oct 6 where they expect 300,000 local people to attend.  The award will consist of some traditional gifts and a "small amount of money."
A spokeswoman for Gore said he was "very humbled" to hear of the award but did not know whether he would be able to attend the ceremony.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

October 8 – Scheduled event (Cupertino, CA)
Celebrity Forum Speaker Series. Flint Center.

http://www.celebrityforum.net/...

October 9 – Scheduled event (Cupertino, CA)
Celebrity Forum Speaker Series. Flint Center.

http://www.celebrityforum.net/...

October 11 – Scheduled event (Cupertino, CA)
Celebrity Forum Speaker Series. Flint Center.

http://www.celebrityforum.net/...

October 11 – Scheduled event (San Francisco, CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer Fundraiser; Westin St. Francis Hotel, Grand Ballroom San Francisco, 4 to 6 PM

Need source.

October 12 – Nobel Peace Prize Awarded
No scheduled events.

October 17 – Scheduled event (Chicago, IL)

Economic Club of Chicago in the Grand Ballroom of the Hyatt Regency.

http://www.suntimes.com/...

October 21 – ABC Debate
Democratic candidates debate on “This Week with George Stephanolopoulos”

No scheduled events.

October 31– Filing Deadline for Florida Primary

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/...

[Let me know if you think I misunderstood this document.]

November 2 – CNN Debate
Democratic candidates debate on CNN. Cosponsored by Nevada Democratic Party.

No scheduled events.

November 5 – Filing Deadline for Illinois Primary

November 16 – Filing Deadline for New Hampshire Primary

November 20 – Scheduled event (Turks and Caicos)

"Former US Vice President Al Gore will be the keynote speaker of the first ever Environmental Conference hosted by the Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, in collaboration with the Ocean Conservancy and the National Coral Reef Institute, to examine the mutual interdependency between local actions and global initiatives."

http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/...

November – Unscheduled event (Israel)

“While on the subject of global warming, former US vice president Al Gore, who is now making a career promoting global warming awareness and ecological threats in general, is scheduled to come to Israel in November to boost sales of his book The Inconvenient Truth, which laid the foundations for his documentary film of the same name. The Hebrew version is to be published by Ziblin Youth Communications.”

http://www.jpost.com/...

December 3 – Filing Deadline for New York Primary

December 14 – Filing Deadline for Virginia Primary

December 21 – Filing Deadline for Massachusetts Primary

January 22 – Scheduled event (Gothenburg, Sweden)

On January 22, 2008, Gore will go to Gothenburg to receive the award at the city's public Save the Climate Event. "This will be an unforgettable evening with prominent artists - and with a speech by the most important opinion maker today on Planet Earth," Edman said.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/...

January – ABC Debate
Democratic primary debate yet to be scheduled for “This Week with George Stephanopoulos”.

I think both optimists and pessimists can find something in this information. Major gaps may not really mean anything. If you will indulge me, I've thought through four different scenarios: before the Nobel, right after the Nobel, further in the future and (of course) he does not run.

Before the Nobel: Al Gore announces he is running for President during his tour of the western states in early October. Doing so early in his calendar such as in New Mexico or Colorado would make geographic sense, taking a big swipe at Bill Richardson. He would also have a number of pre-arranged, easily controlled events throughout which he could plan safe media appearances and magazine interviews. The main risk here is, of course, the Nobel committee is extremely anti-politics; Gore would risk the Nobel Peace Prize by getting into the race before their announcement on Oct. 12. He could, perhaps, try to preempt that by acknowledging the risk in an interview but eh.

Right After the Nobel: Al Gore announces in the last two weeks of October. The days after the Nobel Peace Prize will afford Al Gore some form of attention even if he doesn't get it. Between Oct. 12 and the next Democratic debate, Al has about 10 days to shit or get off the pot (as someone commented so delicately tonight). The only event he has scheduled is Oct. 17 in Chicago with the Economic Club of Chicago. From all the googling I've done, I can't find out a damned thing about this event but it looks like a Gore rally could coalesce around it.

November or December: There are, of course, scenarios in which Gore announces even later in the year. I agree that late entrances haven't hampered the efforts of successful candidates in the past. But the climate HAS changed considerably. The first primary deadlines are in early November. The earliest I have is Nov. 5. Primaries and caucuses are moving up the calendar day to day and, if there's action in December, Gore can't wait a day past Halloween. Yes, several Draft Gore organizations in MA, CA and now NY are making the effort to get on the ballot but the vast majority of states require Mr. Gore's John Hancock.

Does not Run: Gore tells us all to stop wasting our precious time.

I'm sure I'm missing a lot of factors in each scenario but I think this is a pretty fair analysis.

So what are the signs we should be watching? To date, my faith that Al Gore will run for President has been based on what he is NOT doing. He has not said NO. He has not told the netroots to stop. But I expect that we should be looking for positive news stories and interviews showing up in random magazines and maybe a television interview or two. Who can say really?

How will he jump in? On a late night variety show? A slow leak of clues that he's running? A youtube video?

And that is what makes Gorewatching so fun. We can play out any dream scenario in which Al Gore jumps into the race. There is a lot of passion behind Al Gore and it is turning into organization action! We want Al Gore for President and we want him now!

-fink